"Liars figure and figures Lie." Along the continuum from Analyst to Advisor to Advocate objectivity can get lost, and with it credibility.
Everyone seems to have an agenda.
We don't think it has to be that way. We also think there's important difference between educated guesses and data-driven analyses. Leaders need to be clear about the basis of their decisions.
We launched our Public Interest initiative to find and share unbiased answers to interesting questions.
Your support and contributions will enable us to meet our goal of providing straight answers to important questions. Just the Numbers and what they mean.
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We summarized and expanded on the Franklin-Templeton/Gallup study (They Blinded Us with From Science) measuring perceptions—and misperceptions—about COVID-19.
Americans misperceive the age-specific risks of death from COVID-19--4,000% for those under 25
Misperceptions depended on self-identified political affiliation and source of news
People are willing to pay a significant “safety premium” to avoid (mis)perceived risk.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) set-off a firestorm with a recent COVID-19 report. “For 6% of the deaths, COVID-19 was the only cause mentioned..."
Some took this to mean COVID-19 caused only 10,143 (6% of 169,044) deaths. Others tried to make the case that COVID-19 caused all 169,044, and had caused many of the underlying, chronic comorbidities.
We explored the CDC numbers—just the numbers—without the political arguments.
By mid-March 2020, public health experts were urging a national lockdown in response to COVID-19. "We have to flatten the curve..."
The decisions were left to governors and their public health advisors. More than 50 lockdown experiments ensued.
We compared results from Georgia, which re-opened early, and Arizona, which has an ongoing lockdown.
We also looked at collateral health economic impacts.
We all wear masks now. Few of us know much about mask selection, fit, handling, replacement and disposal. These are all critical infection control.
Our study looked at the factors that influence mask effectiveness. We reviewed the evidence supporting universal mask use to reduce the transmission of COVID-19. There is not much.
We also looked at the evolution of advice from public health leaders.
Citing increases in daily cases in four regions of the state's governor pausing and in some cases reversed the state’s re-opening.
Is state-wide case count a guide for state-wide action? Probably not.
Five states comprise 12% of US population, but experienced 41% of COVID-19 deaths. Those states are the difference between US and Canadian success in avoiding COVID-19 mortality.
We compared state COVID-19 mortality rates and trends; and compared the nation rate to rates for other causes of death for context.
What do increasing case counts mean? More hospitalizations? Deaths? Are hospitalization and mortality rates increasing?
Again, case counts are correlated with hospital demands and mortality, but reports need context.
Billy Beane revolutionized major league baseball by looking at “the right numbers,” not the conventional ones.
Should we care about Case Counts? Do they predict important public health impacts? Not really. Cases have only a moderate association with Deaths, and Hospitalizations need context--i.e., local percent of capacity.
Our world is full of data. Everyone shows up with their version of the facts and explanations. People get more skeptical and confused every day, and don't know who to trust. We think the answer is asking important questions and going where that data takes us. No agendas.
Check-out our Recent Studies (below). We started by looking at the CoVid-19 pandemic. It's going to dominate social and personal decisions for a long time. What are the numbers? What do they mean? How are they being used?
We started with two states--Tennessee and Arizona. We want to continue to follow these states, and look at others. To look at the controversy about masks and social distancing--what are the numbers and what do they mean? Are lock-downs having unintended consequences?
Our vision is to pursue this initiative collaboratively. If you have relevant data or analyses we hope you'll tell us about it. If you have an interesting question we hope you'll share it with us. You can email us at Info@Anchor-Helm.com. Let's get to answers together.
Data, tools and people resources cost money. Your donation will help us make this a serious, sustained effort. We hope that effort leads to better understanding and conversations, not arguments.
Thanks for helping.
Your contribution will help us make this a serious, sustained effort.
Thanks for giving.
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