Recent Studies
What We Know Ain't So
We summarized and expanded on the Franklin-Templeton/Gallup study (They Blinded Us with From Science) measuring perceptions—and misperceptions—about COVID-19.
Americans misperceive the age-specific risks of death from COVID-19--4,000% for those under 25
Misperceptions depended on self-identified political affiliation and source of news
People are willing to pay a significant “safety premium” to avoid (mis)perceived risk.
About Those 10,000 COVID-19 Deaths
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) set-off a firestorm with a recent COVID-19 report. “For 6% of the deaths, COVID-19 was the only cause mentioned..."
Some took this to mean COVID-19 caused only 10,143 (6% of 169,044) deaths. Others tried to make the case that COVID-19 caused all 169,044, and had caused many of the underlying, chronic comorbidities.
We explored the CDC numbers—just the numbers—without the political arguments.
Do Lockdowns Work? What Do They Cost?
By mid-March 2020, public health experts were urging a national lockdown in response to COVID-19. "We have to flatten the curve..."
The decisions were left to governors and their public health advisors. More than 50 lockdown experiments ensued.
We compared results from Georgia, which re-opened early, and Arizona, which has an ongoing lockdown.
We also looked at collateral health economic impacts.
Will Masks Reduce Transmission of COVID-19? Which Ones? Is There a Downside?
Will Masks Reduce Transmission of COVID-19? Which Ones? Is There a Downside?
We all wear masks now. Few of us know much about mask selection, fit, handling, replacement and disposal. These are all critical infection control.
Our study looked at the factors that influence mask effectiveness. We reviewed the evidence supporting universal mask use to reduce the transmission of COVID-19. There is not much.
We also looked at the evolution of advice from public health leaders.
Michigan: COVID-19 Case Count Doesn't Predict Deaths Anymore
Will Masks Reduce Transmission of COVID-19? Which Ones? Is There a Downside?
Lower Canadian COVID-19 Mortality Rate. Five States & One Month
Citing increases in daily cases in four regions of the state's governor pausing and in some cases reversed the state’s re-opening.
Is state-wide case count a guide for state-wide action? Probably not.
Lower Canadian COVID-19 Mortality Rate. Five States & One Month
Will Masks Reduce Transmission of COVID-19? Which Ones? Is There a Downside?
Lower Canadian COVID-19 Mortality Rate. Five States & One Month
Five states comprise 12% of US population, but experienced 41% of COVID-19 deaths. Those states are the difference between US and Canadian success in avoiding COVID-19 mortality.
We compared state COVID-19 mortality rates and trends; and compared the nation rate to rates for other causes of death for context.
COVID-19: What Do More Cases in Arizona Mean?
Moneyball & COVID-19. Looking at the Important Numbers
Moneyball & COVID-19. Looking at the Important Numbers
What do increasing case counts mean? More hospitalizations? Deaths? Are hospitalization and mortality rates increasing?
Again, case counts are correlated with hospital demands and mortality, but reports need context.
Moneyball & COVID-19. Looking at the Important Numbers
Moneyball & COVID-19. Looking at the Important Numbers
Moneyball & COVID-19. Looking at the Important Numbers
Billy Beane revolutionized major league baseball by looking at “the right numbers,” not the conventional ones.
Should we care about Case Counts? Do they predict important public health impacts? Not really. Cases have only a moderate association with Deaths, and Hospitalizations need context--i.e., local percent of capacity.
Understanding the Data
Unraveling the Tangled Data
Our world is full of data. Everyone shows up with their version of the facts and explanations. People get more skeptical and confused every day, and don't know who to trust. We think the answer is asking important questions and going where that data takes us. No agendas.
Check-out our Recent Studies (below). We started by looking at the CoVid-19 pandemic. It's going to dominate social and personal decisions for a long time. What are the numbers? What do they mean? How are they being used?
We started with two states--Tennessee and Arizona. We want to continue to follow these states, and look at others. To look at the controversy about masks and social distancing--what are the numbers and what do they mean? Are lock-downs having unintended consequences?
Our vision is to pursue this initiative collaboratively. If you have relevant data or analyses we hope you'll tell us about it. If you have an interesting question we hope you'll share it with us. You can email us at Info@Anchor-Helm.com. Let's get to answers together.
Data, tools and people resources cost money. Your donation will help us make this a serious, sustained effort. We hope that effort leads to better understanding and conversations, not arguments.
Thanks for helping.
